In recent years, Yemen has become a focal point of geopolitical intrigues, primarily characterized by the proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
As of December 30, 2025, the situation intensified following a Saudi airstrike on Mukalla, which targeted what was claimed to be arms supplied by the UAE to the Southern Transitional Council (STC).
This military action has not only sparked heightened tensions between two close allies—Saudi Arabia and the UAE—but also raised questions about the future political landscape in Yemen.
With Yemen’s political future hanging in the balance, this article delves into the background of Saudi-UAE relations in Yemen, the impact of their escalating tensions, and how these developments may reshape the ongoing conflict and the balance of power in the region.
Key Takeaways
- Saudi Arabia’s recent airstrikes on Yemen reveal deepening tensions with the UAE over conflicting interests in southern Yemen.
- The UAE’s withdrawal of counterterrorism forces signifies a major shift in its involvement in the Yemen conflict and raises concerns over internal divisions within Yemen’s leadership.
- The ongoing discord between Saudi Arabia and the UAE may inadvertently empower Houthi rebels, altering the balance of power in Yemen.
Background of Saudi-UAE Relations in Yemen
The background of Saudi-UAE relations in Yemen is a complex narrative shaped by strategic interests and evolving alliances, particularly evident in the recent escalation of tensions surrounding their involvement in the ongoing Yemen conflict.
On December 30, 2025, a Saudi airstrike targeted the port city of Mukalla, claiming to target a weapons shipment from the UAE meant for the Southern Transitional Council (STC)—a separatist group advocating for the independence of southern Yemen.
This military action prompted the UAE to announce the withdrawal of its remaining counterterrorism forces from Yemen, stating that this decision was made independently and not under pressure from Saudi Arabia.
Nevertheless, they denounced the notion of supplying arms to the STC and clarified that the vehicles involved in the airstrike were intended for their operational use.
This incident escalated tensions, with Saudi Arabia expressing disappointment and accusing the UAE of provoking the STC into further military confrontations against Saudi-backed forces in eastern Yemen, which the Kingdom viewed as a significant threat to their national security interests.
The UAE has played a pivotal role in Yemen since the onset of the conflict in 2015, gradually increasing its support for the STC, leading to friction with Saudi Arabia, which seeks a unified Yemen.
Experts suggest that the current discord stems from foundational disagreements regarding Yemen’s political trajectory and future governance.
In light of this turmoil, Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council’s (PLC) leader, Rashad al-Alimi, declared the cancellation of a joint defense agreement with the UAE and proclaimed a state of emergency, marking a critical point in Yemen’s governance.
However, this move revealed internal divisions as it faced opposition within the PLC, highlighting the complexities of Yemen’s political landscape amid the growing rift between two key players.
The fracturing of Saudi-UAE relations could also have significant implications for the broader conflict, potentially allowing Houthi rebels to capitalize on the growing discord between their two primary adversaries, thereby altering the balance of power in the region.
Impact of Escalating Tensions on Yemen’s Political Landscape
The ramifications of this escalating tension between Saudi Arabia and the UAE extend beyond immediate military confrontations, impacting the fragile political landscape of Yemen.
With the Southern Transitional Council (STC) aligned more closely with the UAE, their increasing assertiveness could lead to heightened destabilization in southern Yemen.
Observers note that the STC’s response to perceived threats from Saudi-backed forces may provoke further instability, complicating the already intricate web of alliances and enmities within the region.
The internal dissent within Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) regarding the state of emergency and cancellation of defense agreements with the UAE points toward significant discord and a potential power struggle.
As factions vie for influence amid this power vacuum, there is a risk of conflict escalating into a broader regional crisis, inviting intervention from external actors concerned about stability in the Arabian Peninsula.
The shifting alliances and the reactions of various armed groups will likely shape the future of Yemen’s political and social landscape, emphasizing the need for renewed diplomatic efforts to address the underlying grievances and aspirations of all parties involved.